With only four of 10 Market Peak Indicators signaling there is only one way to view the current correction – as another temporary one.

The five BCPI's, along with declining commodity prices, falling quality spreads and dollar strength speaks to another economic downturn ahead – recession, or the fourth slowing since 2018!

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There's another Business Cycle Peak Indicator and two new Interest Rate Peak Indicators signaling - read below what this implies.

The reversal of another Market Peak Indicator implies further gains for the S&P 500 into a four year bull market, as the last bottom in the S&P was October 2022.
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There are now four of eight Business Cycle Peak Indicators signaling and spreads are declining - a new heads-up!
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We haven't seen a serious intermediate correction in equities so far this year - read about the history of these opportunities in past bull markets.
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There's one less Market Peak Indicator, which translates into higher and wider S&P target levels.
See the 85 year history of bear markets.
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There are two new Market Peak Indicators and the S&P has been stumbling since Japan has been hiking short term rates!
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The US economy is growing. It's just not a politically correct time to admit it and the growth we've experienced for four years has been artificially introduced, so we can easily feel the slowing.

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Equities are now going through the third intermediate (-5% (+/- 1.5%) pull-back in a bull market that started 23 months ago. The first intermediate correction started on March 28th, which happened to coincide with the trough in quality spreads. This is not insignificant.

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There's still only five of 10 Market Peak Indicators signaling.

T-Note yields are penetrating the levels last seen in December 2023, associated with the trough in output (January 2024); however, this is not expected to last long.

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The Fed cut isn't expected to have any benefit on T-Note yields.


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This is more than a typical correction in a bull market with only five of 10 Market Peak Indicators - quality spreads speak to something else.


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Don't expect much of a rally in bond prices when the Fed eases before the election. Read on why...


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Dollar strength and the building evidence of a cyclical bottom in output provides a trading opportunity to short the dollar.


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Another Market Peak Indicator has signaled - see what this means.


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Waiting on more fundamental data points pertaining to the Market Peak Indicators.


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"US output peaked in September '22 as measured by the Total Index of Industrial Production. The BEA growth numbers are not reliable and – to add support to the Total Index data – Utility output also peaked in September '22!"

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From BCD Report July 28th, 2011

"Politically connected groups have avoided going to the Schumpeterian woodshed. Such public policy-errors enables weak industries and sectors, explains slow U.S. economic growth and socializes these errors..."

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BCD Research posted a sell on strength in July 2007 - just before the -57% S&P decline starting in October '07:

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