Report – December 23, 2024
With only four of 10 Market Peak Indicators signaling there is only one way to view the current correction – as another temporary one.
The five BCPI's, along with declining commodity prices, falling quality spreads and dollar strength speaks to another economic downturn ahead – recession, or the fourth slowing since 2018!
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Report – December 10, 2024
There's another Business Cycle Peak Indicator and two new Interest Rate Peak Indicators signaling - read below what this implies.
The reversal of another Market Peak Indicator implies further gains for the S&P 500 into a four year bull market, as the last bottom in the S&P was October 2022.
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Report – November 13, 2024
There are now four of eight Business Cycle Peak Indicators signaling and spreads are declining - a new heads-up!
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Report – November 4, 2024
We haven't seen a serious intermediate correction in equities so far this year - read about the history of these opportunities in past bull markets.
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Report – October 21, 2024
There's one less Market Peak Indicator, which translates into higher and wider S&P target levels.
See the 85 year history of bear markets.
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Report – October 3, 2024
There are two new Market Peak Indicators and the S&P has been stumbling since Japan has been hiking short term rates!
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Report – September 26, 2024
The US economy is growing. It's just not a politically correct time to admit it and the growth we've experienced for four years has been artificially introduced, so we can easily feel the slowing.
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Report – September 12, 2024
Equities are now going through the third intermediate (-5% (+/- 1.5%) pull-back in a bull market that started 23 months ago. The first intermediate correction started on March 28th, which happened to coincide with the trough in quality spreads. This is not insignificant.
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Report – September 9, 2024
There's still only five of 10 Market Peak Indicators signaling.
T-Note yields are penetrating the levels last seen in December 2023, associated with the trough in output (January 2024); however, this is not expected to last long.
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Report – August 27, 2024
The Fed cut isn't expected to have any benefit on T-Note yields.
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Report – August 6, 2024
This is more than a typical correction in a bull market with only five of 10 Market Peak Indicators - quality spreads speak to something else.
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Report – July 22, 2024
Don't expect much of a rally in bond prices when the Fed eases before the election. Read on why...
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Report – July 11, 2024
Dollar strength and the building evidence of a cyclical bottom in output provides a trading opportunity to short the dollar.
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Report – June 27, 2024
Another Market Peak Indicator has signaled - see what this means.
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Report – June 12, 2024
Waiting on more fundamental data points pertaining to the Market Peak Indicators.
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Report – May 29, 2024
"US output peaked in September '22 as measured by the Total Index of Industrial Production. The BEA growth numbers are not reliable and – to add support to the Total Index data – Utility output also peaked in September '22!"
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Japanization of US
From BCD Report July 28th, 2011
"Politically connected groups have avoided going to the Schumpeterian woodshed. Such public policy-errors enables weak industries and sectors, explains slow U.S. economic growth and socializes these errors..."
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July 2007 BCD Call
BCD Research posted a sell on strength in July 2007 - just before the -57% S&P decline starting in October '07:
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